New York Islanders Brock Nelson Contract Extension Prediction

New York Islanders forward Brock Nelson is in the last year of his contract. As an RFA the Islanders will likely retain him. So, for how much?

If New York Islanders fans public enemy no.1 is Josh Bailey, then no.2 is Brock Nelson. Often plagued by Ghost-itis, disappearing for large portions of a game or a number of games in a row. Brock Nelson could be so much more.

With that statement it makes it seem like Nelson is a terrible player. He isn’t. And that’s the issue. With the70% effort, Nelson seems to give he still puts up 40-45 points a season. If he could put that extra 30% into his craft we might have a 60 point player on our hands.

But yet here we are with Brock Nelson putting up 20 goals and almost the same number of helpers every season. Almost like clockwork. How much will that have cost Nelson when he eventually signs that contract extension with the Islanders?

Oh. Yeah. The New York Islanders are going to resign Brock Nelson.

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What Does The Market Say

Using Cap Friendly’s Comparables tool I found that Victor Rask is a 97.8% match based on NHL experience and productivity in their careers. Derek King shows up as 98.1% match, but signing his deal over three years ago is an issue.

Rask not only also scored 45 points this season, but he’s averaged 42 points over his last three seasons. Brock is at 42.5. And more importantly, Rask signed his recent deal just last season.

Want more comparables? Both are lefties. Both play center.

At the age of 23, Victor Rask signed a six-year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes for $4 million per season on the cap.

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Brock is in the last year of his three-year $8.475 million deal. A $4 million per season deal seems absolutely reasonable for what he’s bringing to the table. That of ~42 points per season.

It’s hard to see Brock Nelson’s team not using Victor Rask as a precedent when they enter into negotiations with the Islanders

When Is It Going To Get Done?

The Islanders aren’t in any rush to get a deal done with Brock Nelson. And the same goes for Nelson. To be fair, no one’s putting any pressure on either side to get a deal done. And why would they?

We all want to know when Tavares is going to sign. The Brock Nelson extension is clearly second rate news for the organization.

Both sides are going to enter the 2017-18 season and bet on themselves for future contract negotiations. Brock is going to hope he can hit the 50 point plateau for the first time in his career, and the Islanders will hope that he does the same and that an arbitrator will rule in their favor.

Much like Calvin de Haan before him, Brock Nelson will be eligible for arbitration this off season. As an RFA the Islanders simply need to extend a qualifying offer to Nelson to retain the rights of first refusal and keep him under team control for as long as possible.

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It’s possible that the Brock Nelson deal gets done at the 11th hour next offseason, much like de Haan’s. But getting Nelson at a manageable $4 million might just help the Isles try to upgrade through a trade.

When I said the Isles will sign Nelson, I meant it. But the goal was to make him moveable. Tah-dah!