Yes, if the Islanders lose to Florida they will have a shot for Alexander Lafreniere but what are the chances of winning the Stanley Cup?
If you’ve ever listened to a single episode of our podcast, you’ve probably heard me saying “we’re not a math podcast” anytime we have to do any sort of math that is marginally above a third-grade level.
Well, today, we’re going to talk numbers, so I guess I’m a hypocrite. After the NHL Draft lottery, we learned that one of the teams who gets knocked out in the qualifying round will be picking first overall.
So if the Islanders bow out to Florida in round one, they will have a shot to win the number one overall pick. All of the teams that don’t make it past the qualifying round will have a 12.5 percent chance at landing the pick.
According to Odds Shark, the Islanders are +6000 to win the Stanley Cup which is roughly a 1.6 percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
So while technically, the Islanders are “more likely” to draft first overall than winning the Stanley Cup the objective doesn’t change, as Mitch so eloquently wrote out yesterday explaining why tanking is not an option.
Some people will see this and want to play the odds, and I understand that. While others will say you always play to win no matter what, which I also understand.
“Tanking”, or putting yourself in a position to have a high draft pick for the future is a plan that many GM’s use for the entirety of a season. In the Islanders position, it doesn’t make sense, not at this point. If you’ve been going for it up until the playoffs you continue with that mindset.
If you’re a playoff team, you have a chance. The Blue last year finished third in their division and fifth in their conference, they weren’t a favorite to win it all. In 2012, the Kings were the last team in for the Western Conference and they won the whole thing, they weren’t favorites either.
We see the most upsets in the NHL playoffs, compared to the other major sports. So while in all likelihood, the Islanders will more likely than not beat Florida in the qualifier and then get smoked by Boston or Tampa, there’s a chance that they catch Philly.
And maybe they advance to the next round. It would be a herculean effort to do it, but crazier things have happened. The goal is to win a Stanley Cup, if you do happen to lose out in the first round and win the draft lottery, fine so be it.
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But there’s no way that I’m actively looking for my team to lose in July for a 12.5 percent chance of getting Alexander Lafreniere. I just can’t do it. Give me the one percent, I’m ready to get hurt again.