Evaluating the 3 potential NY Islanders playoff opponents

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The NY Islanders have uncannily brought meaning back to their 2023-24 season. Just a few weeks ago, the Islanders were seven points back of the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. When the doors open at UBS Arena tonight, the Islanders will hold third place in the Metropolitan Division. They are two points ahead of the Washington Capitals for this playoff spot and three points ahead of the Pittsburgh Penguins.

On March 11th, the team would have given anything to be within three points of a playoff spot with four games remaining. Quite put, a second wild-card finish would now be a disappointment considering how far ahead the Isles have put themselves. However, the possibilities are endless given the amount of teams still alive, including the Detroit Red Wings at 84 points. In reviewing all of the playoff possibilities, who are the opponents the Isles are most likely to face in the first round?

1. Carolina Hurricanes

If the season were to end today, the Islanders would find themselves in a 2022-23 round-one rematch against the Carolina Hurricanes. Just as last season, the Hurricanes would hold a home-ice advantage in the best-of-seven series. In four matchups this season, the Islanders have had success going 2-1-1 against the former Hartford Whalers.

While the Hurricanes are the most likely opponent, they are also the worst-case scenario for the Islanders. As fans, we all have post-traumatic stress disorder from seeing our team get swept in the second round of the 2018-19 Stanley Cup playoffs. We are also beaten down from the six-game series that saw the Isles get blown out or play non-competitive on multiple occasions, including on their own ice in game 4.

On the other hand, home-ice advantage has meant nothing in terms of their regular season decisions against one another. The Isles defeated the Hurricanes twice at PNC Arena in 2023-24 while losing both matchups at UBS Arena, one of those times being in overtime. This is a far cry from going 1-3-0 against the Canes last season, including a heartbreaker in overtime to lose 2-1. Mathew Barzal was also rusty having missed the final 24 games and only playing with Bo Horvat for a handful before the playoffs. Regardless of past and current performances, the Islanders have never matched up well against the Hurricanes.

2. New York Rangers

Should the Islanders fall back into the second wild-card spot or the Hurricanes overtake first place in the Metropolitan Division, they'd stare their nemesis in the face. For the first time since 1993-94, the Isles would matchup against the New York Rangers in round one of the Stanley Cup finals. Suffice it to say, that both fanbases have mixed emotions regarding this best-of-seven scenario.

Strictly based on regular season performance, the Rangers have skated circles around the Islanders in all three matchups. They came back from a 5-3 deficit to defeat the Isles in overtime at MetLife Stadium. Yes, Scott Mayfield took two awful penalties that handed the Blue Shirts an immaculate opportunity to tie the game. The Rangers blew out the Islanders 5-2 in another nationally televised event at Madison Square Garden in March. On Tuesday, the Islanders struck early with three goals in the first period. Had Semyon Varlamov not been on top of his game, the Rangers had every reason to tie this game in regulation as well.

On the other hand, how amazing would it feel as an Islanders fan to see them eliminate the Rangers in round one of the playoffs? After being embarrassed in the Stadium Series and having the arena overtaken by Rangers fans on Tuesday, the team's revenge can finally come in the greatest form possible. Rangers fans are boasting their 'greatest regular season record in franchise history'. For every Islanders fan who has been tormented by Rangers fans for years, a series victory against the Blue Shirts would be something to put in our back pockets for years to come.

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— New York Islanders (@NYIslanders) April 10, 2024

3. Boston Bruins

The most unlikely scenario yet is still a possibility if all the stars aligned for a 2020-21 second-round rematch against the Boston Bruins. This matchup would occur if the Bruins finish with the best record in the Eastern Conference and the Islanders finish in the second wild-card spot. The Islanders have little interest in facing the Hurricanes based on playoff history, but the Bruins are their least favorable in terms of regular season outcomes.

The Isles have never played well against the Bruins. The 2020-21 playoffs are not indicative of how these teams have match-upped in recent seasons. In 2023-24, the Isles are 1-1-1 against the Bruins including a blowout victory on home ice and a lopsided loss at TD Garden. Last season, the Islanders were noncompetitive, going 0-3-1 against the Bruins. In 2021-22, the Isles were 0-2-1 against the President Trophy favorites.

Each of these matchups exposes a different weakness of the Islanders' roster. The Hurricanes bring explosiveness in terms of speed, something the Isles only possess in Barzal and Pierre Engvall. The Rangers have firepower in their top two lines including on the powerplay, something we witnessed at MetLife Stadium and at UBS Arena on Tuesday. The Bruins have an enhanced defensive structure, which is capable of shutting down the Isles' middle-tier offensive production.

However, we have also seen the Islanders overcome their shortcomings by playing as a team, not as a group of individuals making a paycheck. Regardless of opponent, the NHL playoffs are wide open for any team to succeed and win the Stanley Cup. That is why we love hockey.

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