Schaefer leading Calder race, and the analytics back it up

New York Islanders blueliner Matthew Schaefer has been this season’s revelation. We all knew the 18-year-old was good, but we never thought he’d be this good, this soon.

That said, Schaefer is the presumptive favorite to take home the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year. But it isn’t a subjective assessment. The numbers back up Schaefer’s candidacy for the highly coveted award.

According to a February 10 piece in The Athletic, the Calder race is Schaefer’s to lose. The Islanders’ rookie blueliner has a +6.5 Net Rating, topping all first-year NHL players this season. Ivan Demidov of the Montreal Canadiens clocks in second with a +4.3 Net Rating.

That’s a healthy lead fueled by Schaefer’s strong offensive performance. Schaefer has a +6.1 offensive rating to go with a +0.4 defensive rating. The sum of the offensive and defensive ratings highlights a player’s total Net Rating.

That said, Demidov, a forward, has a +4.7 offensive rating and a -0.4 defensive rating. Those numbers bring his overall rating down. Similarly, third-place Beckett Sennecke of the Anaheim Ducks has a +4.7 offensive rating to go with a -1.0 defensive rating.

While other players like Justin Soudif of the Washington Capitals have a higher defensive rating, their offense just isn’t there. That situation drives their overall chances of winning the Calder.

Schaefer passes eye test with flying colors

All right, so the analytics back up Schaefer winning the Calder. But what about the eye test? Please bear in mind that Calder voting is ultimately subjective. And that’s where Schaefer really has no match.

Yes, Ivan Demidov is a generational talent. It’s tough to find players who can be as impactful as Demidov right out of the gate. But then again, Demidov hasn’t had the sort of visual impact that Schaefer has had.

Think of that overtime winner Schaefer had against the Toronto Maple Leafs. That was a watershed moment for such a young man. Many NHL veterans go through their entire careers without such a memorable moment.

Schaefer got to do it when he was 18.

It’s tough to bet against Schaefer winning the Calder this season. Unless the grind of the NHL season gets to Schaefer, his play could suffer. But there’s one major factor that will keep the young star chugging along. The Olympic break has likely given him a chance to reset.

That reset could make Schaefer look like he’s just getting back in from the offseason. If anything, Schaefer could be even more dangerous once he hits the ice after the Olympics.

Oh, to be 18 again.