New York Islanders: Jason Chimera Over-Under 19.5 Goals

NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 13: Jason Chimera
NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 13: Jason Chimera

The 38-year-old Jason Chimera put up 20 goals in his first year with the New York Islanders. Will he be able to do it again in 2017-2018?

In the summer of 2016, the New York Islanders brought in Jason Chimera on a two-year $4.5 million deal.  He was brought in to replace a fan favorite, Matt Martin on the Islanders fourth line and he exceeded any and all expectations in 2016-2017.

Before the season I wrote my expectations for Chimera. I predicted he’d have a 30 point season (15 goals, 15 assists). I was pretty close point wise, he had 33 points on the year, but it was his goal total I was mistaken on.

For the second year in a row Chimera finished the season with 20 goals. My question heading into this year is can he do it for the third year in a row?

The Case For The Over

Consistency. It’s like what we’ve come to expect with Brock Nelson, he’s going to put up 20-25 goals and finish somewhere just over 40 points. We may not like it, but you pretty much know what you’re going to get.

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You could use the same theory here. He’s been healthy the last two years playing all 82 games each year if he plays all 82 games again why can’t he finish with 20 goals again.

Consider his linemates as well. He could potentially be playing with Mathew Barzal and Josh Bailey who are both pass first guys, which would likely lead to more scoring chances.

The Case For The Under

Father time. Jason Chimera will turn 39 in 2018. Granted his birthday is in May so in order for him to be playing with the Islanders at age 39 they’d have to make a pretty deep playoff run, but age can certainly become a factor.

Then there’s the number of games. He played all 82 last year, even if he’s healthy I don’t think he plays a full 82 game season. The Islanders will try to get both Anthony Beauvillier and Mathew Barzal into the lineup and it may come at the expense of Jason Chimera some nights.

The Verdict

To me, the under makes more sense. Between his age and the likelihood of some healthy scratches along the way, he’d need to put together a real stellar season in order to hit that 20 goal mark.

Let’s say he keeps up the same pace he has over the last two years but only plays in 70 games. That’d put his goal total down to 17.

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If I was a gambling man I’d take the under. A bit of a step back in year two seems imminent. He will still serve a purpose on this Islanders team as a bottom six forward, just not as an everyday skater.