New York Islanders could regret selling low on Noah Dobson

The New York Islanders could regret selling low on Noah Dobson now as he has the potential to have a strong bounce-back campaign next season and beyond.
New York Islanders defenseman Noah Dobson still has an elite upside, making it a mistake selling low on him at this point.
New York Islanders defenseman Noah Dobson still has an elite upside, making it a mistake selling low on him at this point. | Bruce Bennett/GettyImages

Entering this season, the New York Islanders had high hopes for Noah Dobson as he embarked on what seemed his best season ever. Unfortunately, that season hasn’t materialized.

Before going down with an injury, Dobson had registered six goals and 24 points in 46 games. His minus-8 rating was the tip of the iceberg, calling his defensive game into question. The apparent dropoff from his 70-point campaign last season came at the worst possible time, as Dobson is set to become an RFA this summer.

Now, all of a sudden, rumors have bounced around like a beachball suggesting that the Isles could be looking to move Dobson at this year’s trade deadline. While there may certainly be teams kicking the tires on Dobson, there is no reason for the Islanders to trade Dobson at this point.

You see, there’s something that other teams suspect. Dobson is having a down year, but he’s an uber-talented defenseman with the potential to bounce back in a huge way in the next couple of seasons.

So, think about it this way: Any team interested in a blue line upgrade could attempt to pry Dobson on the cheap and then reap the rewards when he rounds back into the form. As I suspect, the Islanders are onto other teams’ game.

That is why trading Dobson now is something the New York Islanders could regret down the road. Trading Noah Dobson today would net the Islanders an underwhelming return that would make the trade look like highway robbery.

Looking at the return for Noah Dobson

Dobson is on LTIR at the moment and has a projected return date of February 25. That timeline suits the Islanders just fine, as the 4 Nations Face-Off break gives Dobson time to heal. But the broader picture here is that Dobson is a depreciated asset by all accounts.

He needs a new contract, he’s coming off an injury, hasn’t put up the offensive numbers expected, and has shown regression in his defensive game.

So, what could be a reasonable return for Dobson at this point? Perhaps a couple of draft picks and perhaps a low-tier prospect. That’s it. Had Dobson put up the numbers we expected at the outset of the season, we’d be talking about multiple pieces, including a first-round pick.

In short, trading Dobson now would mean getting virtually peanuts for Dobson, especially when he could rebound and have a fantastic bounce-back season down the road.

New York Islanders can benefit from Dobson’s down year

If there’s a silver lining in Dobson’s down year, it’s that the Islanders can sign Dobson to a more cost-effective contract. I suspect the Islanders will offer something in the three to four-year range at a slight increase per season. In some sense, it would be a type of “show-me” deal in which Dobson has a chance to bounce back and prove he’s worth a massive extension.

In that case, the Islanders and Dobson could be looking at a two-year deal somewhere in the $5 to $6 million range. That sort of deal would be just enough to get Dobson to unrestricted free agency where he can really cash in.

Meanwhile, that play allows the Islanders to ride the wave of the cap increase during the next two seasons as they look to retool. If the Islanders play this one right, they can add more talented pieces and still keep the current core together.