New York Islanders have less than 25% chance to make the playoffs

The New York Islanders have less than 25% to make the playoffs this season. That number stands out amid the reality of the New York Islanders’ current season. After Sunday night’s 4-3 loss to the Dallas Stars, the Isles find themselves four points out of a wildcard spot with 26 games to go.

Making up five points in that span is not easy. But it’s not because the Islanders can’t win enough games. It’s tough because closing the gap on the Detroit Red Wings and the Ottawa Senators depends on these teams’ ability to hold on to their current playoff spots.

Of course, there’s always a chance that the Red Wings and Senators take a step back down the stretch. But there’s no telling if that will be the case. So, Money Puck has officially listed the Isles’ playoff chances at 23.8%, trailing the New York Rangers who’re listed at 43%. Interestingly enough, the Columbus Blue Jackets, one of the teams ahead of the Isles at the moment, has a 13.6% chance of making the playoffs.

As for the Detroit Red Wings, Money Puck has them at 49.2% while the Senators are at 60.4%. If we go by that logic, the first wildcard spot would be taken up by the Sens, leaving roughly three or four teams to fight for the final wildcard spot.

It’s worth pointing out that no team is a lock. Even the Washington Capitals and Winnipeg Jets, who’re listed at 100% are not a lock until they officially clinch a playoff berth. It might seem like they’re as good as gold. But there’s never anything certain in sports.

Looking at New York Islanders playoff odds

Money Puck’s odds go beyond merely making the postseason. They look into each team’s chances to most past the first round. In the New York Islanders’ case, their chances of making it past the first round at 9.6%.

My assumption is those odds consider the high probability that the Isles would face the Capitals in the first round. While not a death sentence, that first-round matchup would be tough for the Islanders. They could sidestep the Capitals and face the Toronto Maple Leafs if the Isles got the first wildcard berth. Either way, the first round would be tough to get by.

Now, assuming the Isles face the Caps, that would place the Islanders on a path to face the winner between the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils. As such, Money Puck gives the Isles a 4.2% of making the third round.

Assuming they get to the Conference Final, Money Puck gives the Isles a 1.8% of making the Stanley Cup Final. Finally, the Isles have a 0.9% of winning the Cup this season.

I suppose that 0.9% is better than zero percent. The fact is that anything can happen. But being realistic, it seems that the Islanders are staring at a relatively bleak picture at the moment. There are three Eastern Conference teams the Isles will have to fight off just to punch their ticket to the dance.

Ultimately, the next week or so, leading up to the trade deadline will make or break the Isles’ season. The loss to the Stars stung. So, there’s even less room for error at this point in the year.