Is Noah Dobson Truly the NHL’s 15th-Best Defenseman?

A recent NHL Network publication ranked New York Islanders defenseman Noah Dobson as the 15th-best in the league.

The ranking listed the Colorado Avalanche’s Cale Makar as the best blueliner in the league, with the Vancouver Canucks captain Quinn Hughes second.

However, moving further down the list, Dobson was listed as the 15th best. So, the question begs: Is Noah Dobson truly the 15th-best defenseman in the NHL?

At first glance, being listed in the top 20 is quite an honor. The names in the top ten feature multiple Norris Trophy-winning defensemen like Roman Josi and Victor Hedman.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Listed at number six is the Florida Panthers Gustav Forsling. While Forsling is a great defenseman, is he better than Noah Dobson?

If we go by numbers alone, Forsling does not surpass Dobson. Forsling’s 39 points last season were nearly half of Dobson’s 70. But the truly glaring number is Forsling’s plus-56 rating. Of course, that stat must be taken with a grain of salt.

Other notables on the list include former New York Islander Devon Toews at number ten, and young gun Evan Bouchard at number nine. Again, while these players are worthy of their rankings, are they significantly better than Dobson?

I argue that Forsling, Toews, and Bouchard are not significantly better than Noah Dobson. We have to dig a little deeper to figure out why Dobson isn’t a top-ten blueliner.

What Would It Take for Noah Dobson to Crack the Top Ten?

The easiest way for Dobson to crack the top ten would be a Norris Trophy. Winning one could easily catapult Dobson ahead of Forsling, Charlie McAvoy, or even Miro Heiskanen.

But then again, some of the aforementioned names are yet to win one themselves. So, why are they ranked ahead of Dobson?

While it may seem somewhat counterintuitive, team success plays a big role in these rankings. If you look at the top ten, all of these players came from teams having successful regular seasons or deep playoff runs.

With the exception of Hedman and Josi, whose teams got bounced in the first round, all the other blueliners in the top ten played for teams that made it to at least the second round. In Forsling’s case, he played a key role in the Panthers winning the Cup.

By that logic, a strong season by the New York Islanders, with Dobson playing his usual best, could be enough to get him into the top ten.

Lastly, there’s a lot to be said about the subjectivity of these rankings. The people who produce these rankings unwittingly allow recency bias to play a significant role in their decisions. That recency bias is what catapults a player like the Edmonton Oilers' Mattias Ekholm to number 16.